Probably incorrect probability
A recent post on the blog Blackademic about the alleged rape of a black woman by white Duke university lacrosse players generated a flurry of comments. One of them anonymously argued: "Unfortunately, statistically a black women is significantly more likely to make a false accusation of rape than to have been raped by a white man. According to the National Crime Victimization Survey ( http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus/current/cv0342.pdf ), less than .0004% of black rape victims were raped by whites. (The NCVS reports the percentage as 0% because there were less than 10 reported cases. I assumed 9 cases, to come up with an actual percentage) Even with the most conservative figure of 2% of rape allegations being false, this means in the case of the Duke Rape Case, the victim is 5000 times more likely to have made a false accusation than to have actually been raped." There were some perplexed responses to this dramatic claim: "yeah, cuz stats and figures are ALWAYS...