It's complicated ...
It has been noted that when trying to explain almost anything , I have a habit of declaring—"It's complicated ..." And of course, it is (whatever it is). But is that just a cop-out? Complexity is particularly challenging when decisions have to be made. There may be many factors beyond our control, that we understand poorly, or that we're not even aware of. And how these factors interact is often unclear. Complexity brings with it uncertainty, and uncertainty is always unsettling. One solution is to do nothing, and sometimes that's the best choice, as expressed in the aphorism " first do no harm ". But, as in the case of climate change , the decision to do nothing ("more studies are needed") is often a poor choice. Coping with complexity Faced with complexity, we simplify. That is, we employ models that make it easier to think about the situation. This comes so naturally to us that we're often completely unaware that's what we...