Why do we overinterpret study findings?

MSNBC recently reported that a new study suggests "U.S. states whose residents have more conservative religious beliefs on average tend to have higher rates of teenagers giving birth". (I learned of this on Rationally Speaking .) The study itself is Open Access, so all the details are freely available . The scatterplot illustrates the strong association the authors found. Now, the authors were reasonably cautious in how they interpreted their findings. The trouble is, the general public may not be. A common error is to conclude the study shows that religiosity causes higher teen birth rates. But correlation does not imply causation . It could be that higher teen birth rates cause religiosity. Or perhaps a third, unidentified factor causes both. But isn't the strength of association still impressive? It is. But what if, as I just suggested, there are other variables involved? Such confounding variables (or confounders, as they are commonly known) can wreak havoc on this...